My Good Friend, Mike Griggs, RB, GRI, publishes a very informative news letter focusing on the Big Island Real Estate Market and generously allows me to post it monthly to my web site.
Here’s his overview for 7/31/2018
The purpose of the Griggs Report is to provide the reader with accurate market data that gives an up-to-date view of the real estate market trends in N. Kona and Hawaii Island. Price Direction and Rate of Price Change are important indicators most are looking. However price data is based on past sales. Current market inventory levels and pending sale trends show more current trends and give clues as to future price direction and rate of change. The report uses the “Pending Ratio”, the ratio of Pending Sales to Active Listing Inventory as a measure of this current supply/demand dynamic. By following the Pending Ratio’s over time the report uses charts to illustrate the trends. The higher the ratio number, the tighter or stronger the market demand versus supply.
- The latest data from Hawaii Information Service shows a continued gradual increase in listing of homes in N. Kona. Pending sales have bounced back a bit. The increase in Pending Sales has caused an upward shift in the Pending Ratio. This is nice to see after a fairly steep decline from May 15 to July 15th. One are of concern is the 30 day closings which are half from a year ago at 25. We will want to keep an eye on this. The increase in Pending Sales should show up as improved 30 closing in coming months.
- The price range data at the top of page 2 shows that the $700,000 to $900,000 price range is contributing the greatest increase in sales numbers. The over $4.0M price range shows a nice gain from last year.
- The Hawaii Island data shows increase in inventory and decline in Pending Sales. The West HI Pending Ratio is in decline. April 30th report showed 475 listings and 269 pending sales. This report shows 512 listings and 187 pending sales. The East HI market is showing stronger numbers than it did in late April.
- Overall the distressed property inventory on the market is showing a slight increasing trend in this report. It will be interesting to follow this going forward to see if it one time phenomena or a change in trend.
- Condo stats seem a little stronger than Residential. Pending sales and Pending Ratio are up from a year ago. One similarity to Residential is the 30 day closed sales which is exactly the same as Residential at 25. The Median Price is at Recovery high…$305,000.
- Land stats are still on the weak side when compared to a year ago. One reason likely is there is enough inventory in the Residential market to satisfy that home buyer profile. Land inventory is limited also.
- Page 6 of the report is the Pending Ratio Summary page. It offers a quick glance of the Pending Ratio trend for N. Kona Res., Condo, Land and Hawaii Island. The right half of the table shows the various price range ratios. The Pending Ratios are all showing strong a dip since April with Residential showing upswing currently. Time will tell how much of this new decline can be attributed to the increased volcanic activity.
- The Page 7 of the report is the Kona Residential Price chart since 1972 has been updated with the new 2017 data. This maintains a data pool of similar homes many of which have resold over the years. The total number of sales that make up the data pool now stands at 7,370 in the 23 subdivisions in the study. The year/year price change for this Mid-level housing group for 2017 is $587,100, up from 2016’s $582,900. This represents a 1% price increase for 2017. This does coincide with the price change data for land, which is the basis for real estate values. Land values on average for 2017 are up +1% from 2016. I would appreciate any input from readers of the report.
- The Kona vs. West Coast is attached with data updated through May 31, 2018. San Diego is showing a 7.35% year over year price gain. Kona was showing +6%. All California large metro markets are showing strong price appreciation ranging from 7.35% to San Francisco at +11.43%. In the NW we see Portland at +5.9% and Seattle, strongest in the nation, at +13.59%. This strong West Coast market should continue to have a positive influence on the Kona and Hawaii Island real estate market.
The Griggs Report is published by Michael B. Griggs, RB, GRI