Our Most Current Real Estate Market Insights

4/1/2019

The Mike Griggs Report has been researched and published for years by my friend Michael B. Griggs, R, PB, Graduate of the Real Estate Institute and with real estate appraisal experience, to provide the reader with a unique comprehensive market driven up-to-date micro view of our real estate market trends here in West Hawaii.

This report is different from most, as it includes; Price Direction, Rate of Price Change, Current Market Inventory Levels and Pending Sales Trends which together show the most current market activity information to give as many clues to price direction, volume of sales activity as possible. The “Pending Ratio”, is, the ratio of Pending Sales (those in escrow not yet closed) to the Active Listing in Inventory, as a measure of the current supply/demand dynamic.

From a MACRO PERSPECTIVE, the buyer or seller emphasis in the market is trending natural, not a buyers or sellers market but a steady positive market for both buyers and sellers. An important fact in this regard is affordability is pushing the upper limits of buyer affordability as opposed to the rental alternative. An important counter balance in our market is the very low issuance of building permits over the last 10 years, so creation of new inventory has and is lagging. Another factor to consider is that the population growth is flat or slightly declining both state and island wide.  —-  Greg

___Mike’s Report for 4/1/2019 more the MICRO VIEW___

1. The latest data from Hawaii Information Service for N. Kona residential shows an improving trend over the past two weeks. Inventory declined and Pending Sales increased. Median price is stable in the mid $630k range. The closed sales in the past 30 days is strong at about the same pace as last year when the market was at its strongest point since the recovery began.

2. The price range data at the top of page 2 shows the 12 months total sales numbers for N. Kona Res. is down from 549 to 493. Current activity should help improve that stat.

3. The Hawaii Island Pending Ratio data shows an increasing trend after declining since the start of the rift zone eruption. This is largely due to the seasonal improvement in Pending Sales and declines in inventory. West HI is leading the improved trend.

4. Overall the percentage of listings of REO or Short Sales on the market is showing a little change from a year ago and averages island wide a 8%, down from 10% a year ago. The REO numbers in Chart 6 show an average decline in properties owned by Fannie Mae, Deutsche Bank, Wells Fargo and Bank of America. The numbers have fallen from last year’s 88 to the current 70. It had been 250 in 2010.

5. The Condo stats continue to be strong. Pending sales are up from two weeks ago and now stand at 100. The inventory declined. This has pushed the Pending Ratio sharply higher. Median Prices are still showing +7%. from the previous 12 month period.

6. Land stats do show some improvement with reduced inventory and increased Pending Sales. This should help improve the sales data in coming months. Sales are off 30% from a year ago and Median Price is still showing a negative 2%.

7. Page 6 is the Pending Ratio Summary page. This page offers a quick glance of the Pending Ratio trend for N. Kona Res., Condo, Land and Hawaii Island. Page 6 Hawaii Island ratio is probably the best indicator of the residential market trend. In this report we see nice continued improvement for Hawaii Island. This represents the seasonal upswing we had been hoping to see.

8. The Page 7 Kona Residential Price chart since 1972 has been updated with the new 2018 data. This maintains a data pool of similar homes many of which were new sales or have resold over the years. The total number of sales that make up the data pool now stands at 7,644 in the 23 subdivisions in the study. The year/year price change for this Mid-level housing group for 2018 is $615,100, up from 2017’s $587,100. This represents a 5% price increase for 2018.

9. The Kona vs. West Coast shows sales data for N. Kona and San Diego through January 31, 2019. The Kona price appreciation trend is improving and stands at +2.5% year over year. San Diego price appreciation is in a declining trend showing a +1.4% appreciation rate.

Michael B. Griggs, R, PB, GRI

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For an email copy of the full report and charts, simply request them via: GMG@Hawaii.rr.com or call me; Greg Gerard @ 808-987-7720.

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